A new survey reveals that there is a massive shift underway in sentiments of Jewish voter in critical swing districts of Pennsylvania and New York. This is according to a non-partisan poll conducted by the Teach Coalition, along with the Honan Strategy Group. The survey further reported that Jewish voters are increasingly ditching Democratic candidates, largely due to growing antisemitism and the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The poll shows a remarkable surge in political interest among Jewish voters. Now, 56 percent of Jewish voters in Pennsylvania say they are more likely to vote this November. And in New York’s swing districts, 66% have answered that they are more likely to vote. This trend is due to the terrorist attacks in Israel on Oct. 7 and the growing wave of antisemitism in the United States.
Decline of Democratic Support
A new poll shows that Jewish voters are abandoning Democratic candidates in massive numbers. Currently, only 49% of the Jewish voters in Pennsylvania support Vice President Kamala Harris. This is considerably lower compared with the 68% support that President Joe Biden received in 2020. By comparison, former President Donald Trump has gained momentum, to where now 42% of the Jewish voters support him.
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Yet in New York’s swing districts, Harris still secures only 56 percent of the Jewish vote, while Trump captures 37 percent. This is part of a poor electoral portent for the Democratic Party. Upset increasingly with the party on matters related to the interests of Jewish voters themselves, Jewish voters are starting to abandon the party in droves.
Consequences on Election Outcomes
Changing attitudes among Jewish voters have the potential to make a big difference in 2024. Pennsylvania, with its estimated 300,000 Jewish voters, and New York’s swing districts, with tens of thousands more, are major battlegrounds. Biden won Pennsylvania by only 80,000 votes in 2020. Without solid Jewish voter support, Biden is in danger of losing the state.
According to the New York Post, Jewish voters have also been coming out in unusually large numbers lately to vote in primaries. Take New York, for instance, where an astonishing 58% of eligible Jewish voters voted in the June primary between George Latimer and Jamaal Bowman. It seems reasonable to expect that this strong turnout will persist into November. And if it does, Jewish voters are likely to be decisive in at least a half-dozen contests.
Factors Behind the Trend
Of those factors, however, the most outstanding include increased Jewish voter enthusiasm, supported by consistent declines in Democratic support. Recent attacks on Israel and rising antisemitism have heightened security concerns, with many Jewish voters feeling the Democrats have underperformed.
This has in turn been helped by the surge of antisemitism in the U.S. Everywhere in the country, Jewish communities are reflecting evidence of a broader increase in hate crimes and discriminatory incidents. This created an atmosphere of fear and insecurity that influenced many Jewish voters to reflect upon their political alignments.
Possible 2024 Impact
To date, the shifting dynamics amongst Jewish voters can have huge implications going into the election year 2024. Jewish voters are influential in states viewed as swing states, where their votes could give any contestant an extra edge. A state such as Pennsylvania and New York, for example, commands a huge proportion of Jewish voters. It would thus mean that their votes could determine key races and perhaps influence the overall outcome of the presidential elections.
This underlines very clearly how important it is for political candidates, through proper strategy, to be able to demonstrate greater concern about antisemitism and support for Israel. Candidates not engaging with Jewish voters on matters most critical to them may find themselves struggling in trying to win the support they seek.
