A new Gallup poll has revealed a major shift in the Democratic race for the 2028 presidential nomination. California Governor Gavin Newsom has now become the favorite among Democratic voters, securing 25% support.
Newsom Leads the Pack in Latest Poll
This gives Newsom a clear 9-point advantage over the second-place contender, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, who polled at 16%. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, once seen as a strong contender, now sits in third with 11%. That marks a noticeable drop for Harris, whose support has slid by 13% since June.
The poll, released on Friday, indicates that many Democrats are increasingly rallying behind Newsom. His rising national profile and recent push into political debates have kept him in the headlines. This visibility appears to be resonating with Democratic voters across different age groups and communities.
Observers note that Newsom has been active on national platforms in recent months, often making statements on policies that extend far beyond California. His approach of positioning himself as a strong Democratic voice may be one of the key factors driving his popularity.
The results also suggest that Newsom is appealing to groups that often determine the outcome of primaries. Younger voters, older voters, and minority communities have all shown a rise in support for him. These factors make the poll significant, even though the 2028 election is still years away.
Matchup Against Republicans Shows Tight Contest
The same survey explored a potential 2028 general election matchup between Gavin Newsom and Republican candidate JD Vance. Results showed a statistical deadlock, with both candidates tied at 44% each. Another 12% of respondents said they were undecided, highlighting how early and uncertain the race remains.
Emerson College polling data included in the report revealed more details about voter behavior. Newsom’s support rose by 12% among voters under 30, by 18% among those over 70, and by double digits among both white and Black voters. These figures suggest that Newsom’s appeal stretches across multiple demographics, giving him a broad base of support.
At the same time, the poll reflected broader dissatisfaction within the Democratic Party. A striking 0% of Democrats surveyed said they were satisfied with the current direction of their party. By contrast, 76% of Republicans expressed satisfaction with the state of their own party. This sharp divide shows how unsettled Democratic voters feel, even as Newsom’s popularity grows.
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The numbers also shed light on issues within California itself. When asked about redistricting, 56% of voters in California said it was a bad idea. Despite this, Newsom’s support has continued to rise, raising questions about how state-level concerns may affect his national image.
The tie between Newsom and JD Vance underscores how competitive the 2028 election could become if these two candidates face off. While Newsom benefits from strong support within his party, Vance is seen as a rising Republican figure, particularly among conservative voters focused on immigration, the economy, and crime.
Critics and Supporters React to Newsom
The poll has sparked strong reactions across political circles. Many commentators who have observed Newsom’s leadership in California remain critical of his track record. Critics argue that his polished national image does not reflect the challenges his state has faced under his leadership. They point to issues in San Francisco during his time as mayor and his handling of state-level crises as examples of what they consider weaknesses in his governance.
Some critics have described him as more focused on appearances and media presence than on solving problems. They argue that his ability to make headlines and project confidence can overshadow shortcomings in his administration.
Supporters, however, see Newsom’s growing national profile as a sign that he has the communication skills and visibility needed in modern politics. His readiness to confront Republicans in public debates and his efforts to shape national conversations have kept him relevant at a time when other Democratic figures are struggling to maintain visibility.
Within the Democratic Party, reactions remain mixed. While many voters are rallying behind Newsom, others remain dispirited after recent setbacks. Analysts suggest that dissatisfaction is less about Democratic policies and more about the party’s inability to convert them into political victories. This has left room for figures like Newsom, who present a more energetic image, to gain momentum.
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Republican commentators have also weighed in, warning their party not to underestimate Newsom. They note that his appeal across age groups and racial demographics makes him a potentially strong challenger. Some described him as “more dangerous than you think,” pointing to his ability to project the image of a centrist while still appealing to the Democratic base.
Despite the mixed opinions, one fact remains clear: Gavin Newsom has surged to the top of Democratic polls, making him the leading figure in early discussions about the 2028 race. His current position highlights both the enthusiasm of his supporters and the unease of his critics, setting the stage for what could be a defining political battle in the years to come.
