With federal cases pending in Florida and Washington, as well as an election-tampering case in Georgia, legal troubles persist for former U.S. President Donald Trump. How might these complications affect his run for the presidency in the upcoming November election? In an exclusive column, Professor Vijayalakshmi, an expert in geopolitics and international relations, provides her analysis.
A Global Election Season
This year marks a significant election season worldwide, with countries like India, the UK, Mexico, various European nations, and the USA preparing for pivotal votes. The U.S. presidential elections scheduled for November have garnered extraordinary attention. For the first time, a Republican candidate who is also a former president and the presumptive nominee, Donald Trump, has been convicted on 34 counts related to “hush money” payments to Stormy Daniels in 2016.
Legal Complications and the U.S. Election Landscape
The Type E felony conviction serves as a somber reminder of the deeply polarized U.S. political landscape and could potentially fuel ongoing partisan retaliation. Trump’s legal troubles are far from over, with pending federal cases in Florida and Washington and an election-tampering case in Georgia. These ongoing legal issues raise questions about their impact on his presidential campaign.
Constitutional Qualifications and Historical Precedents
According to the American constitution, a presidential candidate must be a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old, and a U.S. resident for at least 14 years. Therefore, Trump can remain on the ballot and even govern from behind bars if necessary. Historical precedents such as Eugene Debs, the socialist candidate who won a million votes while imprisoned in 1920, suggest that Trump’s wealth and status, along with a likely appeal by his lawyers, could shield him from the consequences of his convictions.
Election Campaign Implications
The sentencing, expected to be announced on July 11, will depend on various factors. Most likely, Trump could face some form of probation, potentially affecting his ability to campaign due to possible travel restrictions. The specifics of the sentencing will significantly influence the extent of these impacts.
Public Opinion and Election Strategy
Public opinion is another crucial factor. According to a Morning Consult poll, only 15% of Republican voters nationwide want Trump to drop his election bid, indicating strong support within his party. Independent voters, who were previously split between Biden and Trump, showed no significant change in their stance. Even before the trial, a PBS Newshour, NPR, and Marist poll found that for two out of three registered voters, a guilty verdict would not influence their voting decisions in November. This included independent voters.
Biden’s Campaign Strategy and Democratic Response
Democratic supporters of President Biden might prefer a more assertive response to Trump’s conviction. However, Biden’s re-election campaign has emphasized defeating Trump at the ballot box. The campaign has also solicited financial support, noting that Trump’s campaign raised $52.8 million following the jury verdict.
Current Polls and Voter Demographics
The current state of affairs in the U.S. reveals a tight race. A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in early May showed Trump and Biden tied with 40% support each. However, Biden faces challenges with lower approval ratings among younger Black, Latino, and Asian American voters, groups that overwhelmingly supported him four years ago, according to the University of Chicago’s latest GenForward survey.
Influential Factors in the Upcoming Election
Several issues could significantly impact the election outcome. A re-energized Republican base could lead to higher voter turnouts. Additionally, Trump’s Vice-Presidential pick, likely from Florida, could play a crucial role. Ultimately, elections are decided by voter perceptions, which in this election are influenced by factors such as age, accusations of political witch-hunting, institutional fairness, faith in the judicial process, the economy, immigration, and U.S. foreign policy. Trump’s convictions in Manhattan add a complex twist to this already multifaceted mix.
Conclusion
As the November presidential election approaches, Trump’s legal troubles and their potential impact on his campaign continue to be a topic of intense scrutiny. While the constitutional requirements allow him to remain a candidate, the practical implications of his convictions, public opinion, and strategic responses from both parties will play significant roles in shaping the election outcome. The unique circumstances surrounding this election underscore the complexities of the current U.S. political landscape.
