President Joe Biden is facing resistance from key Israeli officials as he advocates for a three-phase agreement between Israel and Hamas. This agreement aims to immediately bring home dozens of Israeli hostages and free Palestinian prisoners. It also has the potential to end the nearly eight-month-old Gaza war.
A Strategic Move in a Tough Political Climate
Amidst a challenging reelection campaign, Biden’s decisive move seeks to reassure a significant portion of his political base. Many of these supporters have been disheartened by his handling of the conflict. The war has claimed the lives of over 36,000 Palestinians and left hundreds of thousands struggling to meet basic needs.
Recently, White House officials revealed Biden’s decision to publicize what is described as an Israeli proposal. This occurred just a day after the proposal was presented to Hamas. This strategic move aims to pressure Hamas into action. It diverges from the U.S. administration’s previous stance of allowing Israel to lead hostage negotiations.
Biden’s Different Approach
“The president deemed a different approach necessary given the current state of the war and hostage negotiations. He believed it was time to make the proposal public. This was an effort to energize the process here. The goal was to catalyze a different outcome,” said White House national security spokesman John Kirby.
Following Biden’s announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office maintained its stance on continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed. Netanyahu’s political survival hinges on a far-right coalition determined to eradicate Hamas. He further complicated the proposal’s prospects by stating there are “gaps” in Biden’s outline. Additionally, he asserted Israel’s right to resume military actions.
Addressing Political Tensions
Kirby minimized the differences between Biden and Netanyahu, emphasizing that the proposal originated from Israel. He highlighted Biden’s alignment with Israel’s view that Hamas should not govern postwar Gaza. Furthermore, he emphasized that Israel should not have to live next to such a terrorist threat.
Kirby clarified that the aim wasn’t to pressure the prime minister or the war cabinet. “It was about showcasing to the public the quality of the Israelis’ new proposal and their dedication to resolving the situation.”
However, even if Hamas agrees to the terms, Netanyahu faces tough political decisions. Key coalition members, like National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, have threatened to leave his government. Their departure, if he approves the proposal, could lead to the collapse of the coalition. Smotrich criticized the proposal, arguing that a cease-fire would humiliate Israel and amount to surrender, advocating for increased military pressure instead.
Navigating Hostage Crisis and Domestic Pressure
Biden recently expressed concern over Israeli officials who prioritize continued fighting over freeing hostages. Administration officials warned Israel that prolonged conflict in Gaza could harm its national security.
“Endless conflict in Gaza won’t make Israel safer,” emphasized State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.
Netanyahu also faces pressure from hostage families to reach an agreement. Around 80 people captured in the October 7 attack are still alive, with Hamas holding the bodies of 43 others. Opposition leader Yair Lapid pledged political support to Netanyahu, ensuring government stability if a deal is reached.
Despite significant challenges, the Biden administration remains cautiously optimistic about a potential deal. Jake Sullivan urged global leaders to support the proposal and called on Hamas to come to the negotiating table.
International Support and Next Steps in Gaza
Biden has engaged with key international players to rally support for the proposal. He spoke with Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani of Qatar, a significant intermediary with Hamas. Biden described the situation as the “best possible opportunity for an agreement.” Additionally, Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield circulated a draft resolution at the United Nations to gain Security Council backing.
Sullivan also discussed the proposal with his Turkish counterpart, Akif Cagatay Kilic, urging Turkey to use its influence over Hamas. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has hosted Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, defended Hamas in the past.
The Group of Seven (G7) leaders endorsed the deal on June 3, urging Hamas to accept the terms. They called on countries with influence over Hamas to facilitate the agreement.
The Proposal’s Phases and Challenges Ahead
Biden acknowledged the difficulties in moving beyond the initial phase of the proposal. The first phase lasts six weeks and involves a cease-fire. It also includes Israeli troop withdrawal from densely populated Gaza areas. Additionally, it entails the release of certain hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. Israel would also permit 600 humanitarian aid trucks into Gaza daily.
The second phase includes releasing all remaining hostages and a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Hamas is expected to make significant demands regarding the release of Palestinian prisoners and assurances against targeting their leaders.
Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. Middle East peace negotiator, emphasized that achieving the first phase would decrease military escalation and casualties. “Negotiations are effective when parties perceive enough pain and potential gain, prompting urgency. Miller remarked that the Biden administration is the sole party in a rush here.
Israeli officials, however, anticipate a prolonged conflict. Israeli national security adviser Tzachi Hanegbi predicted last week that the war could continue for another seven months. He cited the goal of dismantling Hamas and the smaller Islamic Jihad militant group.
With the U.S. Election Day just over five months away, Biden faces mounting pressure to swiftly resolve the Mideast conflict. This issue has significantly impacted his political support.
